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Hon Larry Anthony AO, Chairman 

Winning a fourth term in Government is a herculean effort. SAS Group Director Larry Anthony stirs the pot of public sentiment to determine how the NSW and Queensland governments will manage the task.

The adage that governments are kicked out, not voted in, is a truism that has existed since time began. Just ask Scott Morrison after the Albanese ALP Government’s win last month with only 32% of the primary vote and no real policy agenda.

Despite pump-priming budgets delivered this week by the treasurers of NSW and Queensland, there is a definite sense of foreboding that the next batch of State elections could produce the same result.

The NSW State Government goes to the polls on March 25, 2023.  There are 93 seats in the Lower House and 42 in the Upper House with 21 seats up for re-election in the Upper House.

The Liberal National Government rules the Treasury benches in Macquarie Street and will be asking the public to endorse the Perrottet, Kean, Toole team for another fourth term. A big ask in anyone’s book!  

NSW is traditionally a Labor state but lost heavily in March, 2011, after 16 years in power.  Fortunately, or unfortunately for the Liberal Party, they have had to reinvent themselves for the last three elections under the premierships of Barry O Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berejiklian and now Dominic Perrottet.

Whether they can reinvent themselves against a reinvigorated State ALP under the leadership of Chris Minns this time around is the $64 million question.

Treasurer Kean has read the tea leaves and is determined to neutralise the female and younger demographic vote that ruthlessly punished the Morrison Government at the federal election. His Budget included major boosts to preschool education, women’s polices, climate polices as well as land tax reform to improve affordability for first home buyers.

In Queensland, the state election is not due until October, 2024, but already the prospects of the Palaszczuk-incumbent Government gaining a fourth term seem shaky. 

Despite the best effort of Treasurer Cameron Dick’s Budget brought down on the same day as NSW, the rumour mill is rife that the Premier has checked out and may not serve a full term.  This may be unfair put perception does tend to become reality in the murky world of politics, with the Premier’s social life dominating the news cycle.

The Queensland ALP Government holds 47 seats out of a 93-seat Parliament and with no upper house the odds should be in their favour. But the cracks are emerging with the ongoing integrity issues and a potential campaign by the resource community against taxes announced in the Budget. 

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has to overcome issues relating to his never-ending Covid shutdown of the state, ongoing integrity issues and a suffering economy. Remarkably, his re-election chances for a third term on November 26 this year are promising.  Perhaps this says more about the effectiveness of the Opposition than the effectiveness of the Government.

In the end, political death comes to all Governments no matter what your persuasion. Winning a third term like the miracle election for Scott Morrison in 2019, Gladys Berejiklian in 2019 and Anastasia Palaszczuk in 2020 is a huge political triumph.  

Winning a fourth term is like winning the jackpot twice.

Only time with tell for the NSW and Queensland governments if their time is up!

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